The presentations from the Vancouver Global Log & Lumber Conference are now available for purchase. The conference was a two-day international log, lumber, industry and markets conference including a cross-section of 20 North American and international speakers, plus many panelists. This conference remains vital to market planning and strategy setting, to better assess developments in key global markets and supplying regions.
One of the conference highlights came from the “Deep Dive” session that explored the many evolving changes to the BC Coast and Interior timber supplies and forest industries. Local B.C. consultant and industry forecaster, Jim Girvan, left some in the audience somewhat stunned on his forecast for B.C. Interior lumber production over the next decade.
As background, Girvan, business partner Murray Hall and Russ Taylor (WOOD MARKETS) collaborated and produced a 2010 blockbuster outlook report for the B.C. Interior timber harvest and wood products industry. The resulting forecast of “16 sawmills to close by 2018” made headlines nationally and around the world. And that is exactly the outcome of what has occurred as of mid-May 2019.
Girvan has provided an update to his original forecast, which includes an outlook to 2028 from ongoing impacts from the Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) epidemic. He then combined other threats to the timber supply, including previous forest fires, spruce beetles and the likely impacts of a provincial program to protect Caribou habitat, to predict the full decline of the timber supply for the BC Interior.
The cumulative impacts points to a severe timber shortage that is the equivalent of an additional 12 sawmill closures over the next decade (after including the recent Tolko Quesnel closure). This means that between 2006 to 2028, it is possible that a total of 40 mills could have closed in the NEW REPORT: Beetles, Fires and Fauna: Quantifying the BC Interior – Forest Industry Impacts to 2028
A full report based on this analysis will be available in August 2019, that includes complete regional details and forecasts by B.C. Interior region, with an outlook to 2028. The report is prepared in conjunction with the Industrial Forestry Service, Prince George, B.C. and will be published by Forest Economic Advisors (FEA), Vancouver, B.C. and Littleton, MA.
For report subscription rates, please contact David Battaglia, VP Sales and Marketing, FEA LLC by phone at (+1) 770-265-7150 (cell) or (+1) 978-496-6338 (office), or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
An overview of the analysis (developed from the presentation made by Jim Girvan of MDT Management at the Global Softwood Log & Lumber Conference) is provided in the May issue to subscribers of WOOD Markets Monthly International Report.
It is also featured in the Vancouver Sun newspaper:
The 10th Annual Global Log & Lumber Conference is moving to June, along with International Pulp Week (June 14-16, organized by the PPPC): Wednesday June 17 and Thursday June 18, 2020 – both are at the Fairmont Hotel Vancouver.