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BC Interior Regional Fibre Supply Forecast (2019) Report

Life After the Beetle:

Analysis and forecast of BC timber availability and wood products production to 2028

Vancouver Sun Story

Brochure & Order Form

Early Bird Prices end July 15, 2019.

Publish Date: August 2019

Contact Dave Battaglia, dbattaglia@getfea.com for rates and availability

Contact Rob Schuetz rschuetz@industrialforestry.ca for further report details 

 

The mountain pine beetle has devastated lodgepole pine forests in the Interior region of British Columbia. Many of the impacts have already been felt in the industry where 27 mills have already closed since 2006. And timber harvest levels will continue to significantly. Further timber harvest reductions and mill closures most definitely lie ahead, not just from the remaining impact of the mountain pine beetle, but also as a result of some new and real disruptors already in play:

  • Spruce bark beetle infestation,
  • Losses from two years of devasting forest fires, and
  • Recent government moves to reduce timber harvests in order to protect the endangered mountain caribou.

The BC Interior Regional Fibre Supply Forecast (2019) report is another deep dive into the dynamics that will continue to challenge BC Interior forests and with wider implications to the provincial industry as a whole. It is not only sawmills that will be closing, but also rotary/plywood mills; there is also potential for closures of pulp mills, wood pellet plants and cogeneration plants. This timely report will address the key implications impacting the BC Interior industry’s future.

The report features some of the following attributes, analysis and outlooks:

  • A proprietary modeling of BC timber fibre availability by region and year (to 2028) under several key assumptions.
  • Reduced timber harvests and AACs as a result of the remaining mountain pine beetle infestation, the spruce bark beetle infestation, recent forest fires, and a reduced timber harvest land base to protect the mountain caribou.
  • A modeling of BC lumber and panel production by year and BC region.
  • Annual projections of the likely supply of residual fibre (for pulp, MDF, particleboard, bioenergy and wood pellets) in BC by year and region.

The BC Interior Regional Fibre Supply Forecast (2019) report is the follow-up to two previous landmark reports: BC Mountain Pine Beetle: Evolving Impacts & Opportunities (2012) and BC Interior: Mountain Pine Beetle Attack (2010). The primary author is Jim Girvan, MDT Management, who operated the detailed fibre model on the two previous reports and achieved the predicted results today (as forecast in the 2010 report).

This report will be useful for those trying to understand timber supply and lumber production dynamics in North America, especially on the timing and regional mill closures in BC. The report’s output generates a detailed outlook for the BC Interior’s sawlog, chip and residual fibre availability at a strategic level over a planning horizon of one decade. In combination with assessments of how the resulting lumber, panel and pulp production may be affected, the final analysis clearly demonstrates why the BC industry may become a smaller regional force in global forest products markets in the years to come.

Report is scheduled for August 2019 (approximately 150 – 175 pages).

Questions? Contact dave Battaglia at dbattaglia@getfea.com  or call (+1)-978-496-6338.