The Russians are Coming!

New Russia Report provides outlooks to 2025/2030 that shows Russia’s Expanding Softwood Lumber Industry is Rapidly Displacing Other Exporters to China!

The trends are clear – Russia’s softwood lumber production and exports have risen dramatically:

  • Russian softwood lumber production, estimated at 39 million m3 in 2018, has increased by 55% over the past ten years.
  • Russian softwood lumber exports, at 29.3 million m3 in 2018, have nearly doubled over the same period.
  • Russian softwood lumber exports to China were a whopping 15.65 million m3 last year! This is more than double exports in 2014 and now represents a 63% market share of all softwood lumber imports.

The nearly 10% increase in Russian softwood lumber exports in 2018 is despite slowing market conditions in China and Russia is aggressively displacing many other countries, including Finland (-32%; -550,000 m3); Sweden (-22%; -200,000 m3); and Canada (-15%; -824,000 m3).

The FEA/WOOD MARKETS team traveled throughout Russia and China assessing the increasing role of Russian softwood lumber in China, the shifting China supply chain, and the growing competitiveness of the Russian industry. The findings of this work are now available in our second in-depth analysis report, Russia: Forest Industry Competitiveness & Export Outlook to 2025/2030 (with a focus on China). The analyses examined in the report include:

  • The impact of major capital investments and expansions by Russian-owned companies.
  • The growth of Chinese-owned sawmills companies in Russia. As many as 500 Chinese companies are operating in Russia and benefit from an in-depth understanding of the Chinese market, integrated supply chains, and greater access to credit and financing.
  • The limits on Russia’s ability to continue increasing timber harvests due to rising log costs, longer procurement distances and inadequate markets for lower quality logs.
  • Impacts of new log export tariffs aimed at stimulating more investment in the Russian Far East.
  • Log and lumber supply, demand and price forecasts to 2030 plus a global competitiveness analysis on delivered log and lumber costs to China (including all three regions of Russia).

Note – Special pricing available for subscribers to FEA’s October 2018 report, China’s Import Demand for Softwood Logs and Lumber to 2023 – The Changing Supply Chain in China.